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| 2013—2022年重庆市大足区水痘流行特征分析及对2023年趋势预测 |
| Analysis of varicella epidemic characteristics in Dazu District of Chongqing from 2013 to 2022 and prediction of its trend in 2023 |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1007-8134.2023.04.13 |
| 中文关键词: 水痘 流行病学 特征分析 疫苗接种 趋势预测 |
| 英文关键词: varicella epidemiology characterization vaccination trend prediction |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的?2013—2022年对重庆市大足区水痘流行特征进行分析，为更好地制定水痘防控措施提供科学依据。方法?用描述性流行病学方法对水痘的发病特征进行分析，利用ARIMA模型进行水痘发病趋势预测。结果?2013—2022年重庆市大足区累计报告水痘病例5 112例，年均发病率为65.10/10万，总体呈上升趋势（χ2趋势= 2 271.262，P=0.001）。每年10—12月为水痘发病高峰，5—7月为发病次高峰。时空扫描统计共扫描到3个聚集区，智凤街道、石马镇、棠香街道为最可能聚集区域。男性年发病率（70.40/10万）高于女性（59.54 /10万）。发病主要以15岁以下人群为主，5～9岁为高发年龄段。共报告水痘疫情17起，以小学、托幼机构为主。ARIMA 模型预测结果显示，2023年预测发病较2022年有所下降，但3—5月和9—11月仍可能会出现发病高峰。结论?大足区水痘发病呈逐年上升趋势；发病呈双峰分布；男性发病率高于女性；儿童和学生为主要发病群体。应继续加强水痘的监测和防控，加强疾病防护及疫苗接种的宣传，提高水痘疫苗接种率。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Dazu District, Chongqing from 2013 to 2022 to provide a better scientific basis for varicella prevention and control measures. Methods?Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the morbidity characteristics of varicella, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of varicella morbidity. Results?A total of 5 112 varicella cases were reported from 2013—2022 in Dazu District, Chongqing, with an average annual incidence rate of 65.10/100 000 and show an overall increasing trend (χ2= 2 271.262, P=0.001). The peak incidence of varicella was observed from October to December each year, with a secondary peak from May to July. The spatio-temporal scan statistics scanned a total of 3 aggregation areas, with Zhifen Street, Shima Town and Tangxian Street as the most likely aggregation areas. The annual incidence rate was higher in males (70.40/100 000) than in females (59.54/100 000). The incidence was mainly among people under 15 years old, with the 5 to 9 age group being the high incidence age group. A total of 17 varicella outbreaks were reported mainly in elementary schools and childcare institutions. ARIMA model predictions showed that the predicted incidence in 2023 decreased compared with 2022, but peak incidence may still occur in March-May and September-November. Conclusions?The incidence of varicella in the Dazu District is increasing year by year; the incidence is bimodal; the incidence is higher in males than females; children and students are the main incidence groups. We should continue to strengthen the monitoring and prevention and control of varicella; strengthen disease protection and vaccination publicity, and increase the rate of varicella vaccination. |
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